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Top Ten Pick Analysis - Picks 1 Through 5

Thursday, March 06, 2008 by Michael Keller

1. Miami Dolphins

Miami needs players at lots of positions. Defensive line, linebacker, secondary, offensive line. You name it they need it. The only position they really don't need is running back, since Ronnie Brown was among the league leaders in rushing before getting hurt. The only player at the top of the draft that you can rule out with that is Darren McFadden. I would be shocked if they even think about him. The other position they may not need is quarterback. That depends on how Parcells and Sparano feel about John Beck, who was Miami's 2nd round pick last season. So, at least in my opinion, this pick comes down the 3 players. They are Chris Long, Glenn Dorsey, and Matt Ryan. At this point, I think they are leaning towards Chris Long right now. If Matt Ryan excels at his pro day, that could push the balance back towards him. I think their is a 45/40/15 percent split between Long/Ryan/Dorsey.

Projected Pick: Chris Long - DE - Virginia

2. St. Louis Rams

If Chris Long is still on the board, then this is probably a no brainer. It's a great player who will be at a position they need players at. Their D Line is the thing holding them back the most, so if Long is gone, I think it will be Glenn Dorsey. They picked Carriker in the first round last year, but they run a 4-3 and could use Dorsey along side him. There isn't too much to say about this, it's going to be Chris Long if he isn't drafted by Miami, and Glenn Dorsey if he isn't.

Projected Pick: Glenn Dorsey - DT - LSU

3. Atlanta Falcons

Another situation where it's a little bit of a no brainer. If Matt Ryan is there, Atlanta absolutely has to take him. If he's not there, then they will draft Jake Long. It's just that simple. Atlanta needs someone to help fill the shoes of Michael Vick. Ryan is a high character guy, so it's doubtful he'll run into the trouble that Vick did. Ryan has clearly seperated himself from the other quarterbacks in the draft. So there shouldn't be much hesitation if he is around.

Projected Pick: Matt Ryan - QB - Boston College

4. Oakland Raiders

This is one of the harder picks to project. You never know what Al Davis is going to do. They don't really need a running back that much, especially after just resigning Justin Fargus, but McFadden could be one of the best running backs in the NFL for years to come. I think the idea of JaMarcus Russell handing the ball off too Darren McFadden for the next decade just excites Al Davis too much. He may even have a heart attack he's so excited. And you can't really blame him too much, on potential that has a chance to be one of the best tandems in the entire league, which would set Oakland up for a lot of success in the near future. The other possibility here is Jake Long, which would actually probably be smarter.

Projected Pick: Darren McFadden - RB - Arkansas

5. Kansas City Chiefs

If Jake Long falls to Kansas City, then this again is basically a no brainer. They need help along the offensive line big time, and Jake Long will be a mainstay in the NFL for years. He has big hands and shuffles his feet exceptionally well. He could have the same impact as Joe Thomas did in his rookie season with the Browns last year. Kansas City is lucky to have him. If Long is gone then I think they would pick the next best offensive lineman, which is Ryan Clady from Boise State. They just need help on the offensive line too much to take someone else.

Projected Pick: Jake Long - OT - Michigan

Check Back Soon for Picks 6 Through 10.

Michael Keller is the author of the highest rated, most viewed mock draft on MyMockDraft at the moment.  He recently contributed his Five Most Overrated and Underrated Players in the 2008 NFL Draft.

Comments (18)

  1. Geez, if only all the NFL GM's knew the draft was all just one big no brainer!

    Posted by ctsativa | 3/6/2008
  2. There are always team in the first round who have no brain picks. Obviously it's not as easy as saying that, but they do their homework, and once they do, especially in the top, a lot of time the pick isn't a big deal. Which of those would you disagree is a no brainer? No way Atlanta would pass on Ryan. No way St. Louis would pass on Chris Long, but I have him gone, so that's not really a no brainer at all. It's just Ryan and Long. Best player available at a position where you need someone = no brainer.

    Posted by mikek4687 | 3/6/2008
  3. What about Ryan going to the rams Bulger was on his back alot Long has proved to be a top five t and maybe even a top three in certain eyes, I wouldn't think Long would last with what Thomas was able to do for the Browns.

    Posted by patriots78 | 3/7/2008
  4. Long I ment long not ryan sorry.

    Posted by patriots78 | 3/7/2008
  5. I wouldn't completely argue with that, but I think they need defensive line help even more. Their line had a total of like 6 or 7 sacks all year, which is pathetic. Remember, Orlando Pace was hurt last year and will be coming back so that will help. He is getting older, but still has a couple years left in him.

    Posted by mikek4687 | 3/7/2008
  6. I agree with the dline but when you pick a de in the top fifteen and move him to dt, you really don't want to pick another de you either want pick a dt like you did or trade out I think that it is possible that if they don't pick Long t they may look to trade. Thats just me.

    Posted by patriots78 | 3/7/2008
  7. that makes no sense. 'when you pick a de in the top fifteen and move him to dt, you really don't want to pick another de' if you take a de and move him to tackle, it's the same thing as just taking a tackle. they would rather take an end for that reason. that is absolutely the worst reason that they would not want 'another de' because it wouldn't be another end at all. it would be one tackle and one end.

    Posted by mikek4687 | 3/7/2008
  8. Mike, I don't see how Jake Long makes it out of the top 3. While the Rams might not need a LT, both Miami and Atlanta need to really consider him. For Miami, I can't imagine Dorsey even being a good fit in their 3-4, whether at DE or NT. And for Atlanta, I think the drop off is bigger after Jake Long than after Matt Ryan (who I'm not sold on as much as some).

    Posted by whitej999 | 3/7/2008
  9. First, I don't have Miami selecting Dorsey. They will consider him just on his talent, which is why I gave him a 15% chance of going there. Second, no offense, but it does not matter one bit what you think of Matt Ryan. Nor does it matter what I think. Most every NFL team is pretty much sold on him, and Atlanta needs a young quarterback more than they need anything. They are rebuilding, and at the beginning of that process, yo need to lock in on a young quarterback to let him grow with the team. This process isn't a science, and quite frankly I don't believe there is any way that Atlanta passes on Ryan.

    Posted by mikek4687 | 3/7/2008
  10. Playing in lower level competition, ofcourse Flacco had some dropped balls (every QB does). But think about this...Josh Johnson, who played on lower level team, had 19 more touchdowns and 4 less interceptions. You think he didn't have drops? Not that you can base everything on that, but did anyone watch the 1-aa national championship game? I went to Appalachian State for a year, and am a huge fan of their football team, and still say if Flacco's as good as advertised he should have picked them apart. Less than 50% passing in the championship game isn't something I like to hear. Also, he only had 23 td's in 15 games. At that level of competition, he should have more. It's harder to throw for a touchdown, since the holes get smaller since the endline is an extra defender, and he wasn't able to throw the ball through those holes nearly enough for my liking.

    Posted by mikek4687 | 3/7/2008
  11. I meant too post those 2 on the top 5 overrated prospects. I read them and then have to login after and just came back too the top blog on the homepage, sorry for the confusion.

    Posted by mikek4687 | 3/7/2008
  12. last 1, not last 2

    Posted by mikek4687 | 3/7/2008
  13. i just dont see how 'Ryan has clearly seperated himself from the other quarterbacks in the draft'. he didnt participate at the combine. exactly what has he done to clearly separate himself?

    Posted by benke.it325 | 3/8/2008
  14. played better during the football season. the combine and workouts aren't everything, he's been to QB since about halfway through the college season.

    Posted by mikek4687 | 3/9/2008
  15. top qb*

    Posted by mikek4687 | 3/9/2008
  16. Sorry that didn't make any sense to you, I was just trying to say that carriker is a de, not a dt, why would you take two de's in a row, with the picks that you had last year and this year, Long I think would be a better fit, for the rams, it would also make better sense for them to take dorsey and move Carriker back out to de, sorry again sometimes I try to say stuff that makes to me but maybe not to anyone else.

    Posted by patriots78 | 3/10/2008
  17. It happens. I think we just disagree on the notion that they should move Carriker out to DE. They drafted him as a tackle and he was far from bad last season. I believe they would prefer an End over a Tackle, but will take Dorsey if Long isn't their.

    Posted by mikek4687 | 3/11/2008
  18. thanks for understanding.

    Posted by patriots78 | 3/12/2008